SMR (NuScale Power) Update — New 52-Week Low as Selloff Accelerates, Cash Remains the Floor

NuScale Power hit a new 52-week low of $9.65 intraday on April 2 before closing at $10.15 (-1.1%). The stock is down 81% from its October 2025 high of $57.42 and has dropped 19% in the past month alone. Volume at 24.8M ran above average, with selling pressure persisting. FY2025 financials revealed a massive operating loss expansion to -$690M, driven by SGA costs ballooning to $610M. However, the company sits on $1.25B in cash with zero debt, providing a long runway despite no revenue inflection in sight.

Price Action & Technicals

• Close: $10.15 (-1.07%), Range: $9.65 – $10.35
• Volume: 24,828,587 (above avg ~20.1M)
• 50-day MA: $14.14 — stock is 28% below; deeply bearish
• 200-day MA: $28.56 — stock is 64% below
• 52-week range: $9.65 – $57.42 (new low set today)
• Market cap: $3.23B
• Beta: 2.25

Key levels:

• Resistance: $10.35 (today's high), $10.84-10.99 (Mar 31 / Apr 1 range), $11.67 (early March)
• Support: $9.65 (today's intraday low / new 52-week low), $9.00 (psychological), ~$3.93 (cash per share floor)

The stock has been in a relentless downtrend since the October 15 spike to $57.42, with no sustained bounces lasting more than 2-3 days. The decline accelerated in late March, breaking below the previous 52-week low of $11.08. Today's $9.65 intraday low is the first time the stock has traded in single digits since the nuclear hype cycle began. The long-term chart shows no technical support until the mid-single digits.

Valuation

NuScale has no earnings, no meaningful revenue ($31.5M), and trades at over 100x sales. The only valuation anchor is cash: $1.25B or $3.93/share. At $10.15, the market assigns ~$1.98B of enterprise value to a pre-revenue nuclear reactor design company with no firm construction contracts.

Fundamentals (FY2025)

The FY2025 numbers are alarming on the surface:

• SGA exploded from $75.9M to $609.8M — an 8x increase. This likely includes significant non-cash charges related to the Fluor separation (stock-based compensation from unit conversions, restructuring costs). The headline operating loss of -$690M is misleading without backing out these items. Normalized EBITDA was -$714M vs +$78M in 2024.
• Revenue declined 15% to $31.5M — the company remains pre-commercial. Revenue consists of engineering services, not reactor sales.
• Share count nearly tripled from 122.8M to 318.5M. This is primarily from Fluor converting its partnership units to common shares as part of its exit. The dilution is real and permanent, but much of it was already anticipated.
• Cash tripled to $1.25B from $441.6M — the company raised capital via at-the-market offerings during the stock's October spike. This was well-timed; at current prices, the same capital raise would be impossible.

Balance sheet: $1.25B cash, zero debt, $1.17B book value. The company is not in financial distress. At the current estimated cash burn rate (backing out non-cash items, roughly $150-200M/year), the runway extends 6-8 years. Insolvency is not a near-term risk.

Catalyst Tracker

Negative:

• Fluor ongoing share sales — ~39.9M shares still being distributed via Bank of America, Citibank structured programs through Q2 2026. This creates persistent selling pressure.
• Securities fraud class action (Truedson v. NuScale, 3:26-cv-00328, D. Or.) — lead plaintiff deadline April 20, 2026.
• Multiple analyst downgrades: UBS PT $13, RBC PT $14, Canaccord PT $25, Cantor PT $20. Consensus has collapsed.
• No firm construction contracts. Revenue declining.

Positive:

• TVA ENTRA1 collaborative agreement (nonbinding) for 6 GW. NRC review decision expected by year-end 2026.
• Romania RoPower FID expected mid-to-late 2026 or early 2027.
• Framatome contract (Mar 2026) to fabricate 444+ fuel assemblies — supply chain contract, not construction, but validates the technology pipeline.
• Northland Capital upgraded to Outperform with $21 PT — the lone bull.
• $1.25B cash provides long runway to survive to first contract.