SMR (NuScale Power) — Research Update
SMR (NuScale Power) — Research Update
Date: 2026-03-25
Current Quote
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $11.43 |
| Previous Close | $11.70 |
| Day Range | $11.15 – $11.61 |
| 52-Week Low | $11.08 |
| 52-Week High | $57.42 |
| 50-Day MA | $15.20 |
| 200-Day MA | $29.36 |
| Market Cap | $3.64B |
| P/E (forward) | -27.02 |
| EPS (trailing) | -$2.17 |
| Beta | 2.25 |
| Volume | 17,529,093 (avg 19,420,630) |
Price is 3.2% above the 52-week low of $11.08. Trading well below both the 50-day ($15.20) and 200-day ($29.36) moving averages.
Tranche 2: Fluor Selling Status
Summary
Fluor's sale of its NuScale stake is not yet complete. Approximately 39.9M shares (13.2% of outstanding) remain to be sold via structured bank programs, expected by end of Q2 2026.
Timeline of Fluor Monetization
| Date | Event | Shares | Price | Proceeds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 (various) | Initial sales | ~15M+ | Various | ~$650M |
| 2025-Nov | Class B → Class A conversion begins | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | Block sale to Goldman Sachs International | 71,000,000 | $19.05/share | $1.35B |
| 2026-02-17 | Structured sale agreements signed | — | — | — |
| 2026-Mar (early) | Open-market sales | 463,747 | ~$13.15 avg | ~$6.1M |
| Total to date | ~86M+ shares | ~$2B |
Remaining Sale Structure (as of Feb 17, 2026)
| Tranche | Buyer | Shares | Price | Deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Bank of America | 13,500,000 | Variable (set at program end) | End of Q2 2026 |
| B | Bank of America | 13,500,000 | Variable (set at program end) | End of Q2 2026 |
| C | Citibank | 12,936,472 | Variable (set at program end) | End of Q2 2026 |
| Total remaining | 39,936,472 |
All programs subject to possible early termination by the banks. Open-market sales also continue in parallel.
Current Ownership
- 39,936,472 shares (13.2% of combined Class A + Class B outstanding)
- Down from ~111.4M shares (~36.9%) prior to the February 2026 block sale
Implications for Tranche 2 Trigger
The trigger is "Fluor finishes selling remaining ~40M shares." This has not been met. The structured programs are designed to complete by end of Q2 2026 (June 30). The ongoing selling at current price levels (~$11-13) creates persistent downward pressure — Fluor received $19.05 in the Goldman block sale but current market price is 40% lower.
Notable: Executive Insider Sales
- CTO Jose Reyes Jr. sold 25,951 shares on Mar 2 at $12.22
- COO Carl M. Fisher sold 49,277 shares on Mar 4 at $12.64 (Rule 10b5-1 plan)
Tranche 3: Contract Watch
Summary
No firm or binding construction contract has been signed. The TVA-ENTRA1 agreement remains nonbinding. No other binding customer order exists.
TVA Status
- September 2025: TVA and ENTRA1 Energy signed a nonbinding collaborative agreement for up to 6 GW of NuScale SMR capacity across six plants
- TVA expects NRC review decision by year-end 2026
- Non-nuclear site preparation could begin as early as 2026
- Commercial operation target: 2032
- No escalation to a binding commitment has been reported
Other Developments (Not Contract Triggers)
| Date | Development | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Framatome contract to fabricate 444+ fuel assemblies for first U.S. customer by 2030 | Supply chain preparation (not a customer order) |
| 2026-03-24 | Ebara Elliott Energy partnership for high-temperature steam compressor development | R&D collaboration (not a construction contract) |
| Expected mid-late 2026 | Romania RoPower final investment decision | Slipped from earlier timeline; no binding commitment yet |
Securities Fraud Class Action
A class action was filed: Truedson v. NuScale Power Corporation, No. 3:26-cv-00328, U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon.
Allegations:
- NuScale misrepresented ENTRA1's experience and capabilities
- ENTRA1 was described as an "independent power plant development platform" with veteran leadership
- In reality, ENTRA1 had never built, financed, or operated any significant project
- ENTRA1 was organized primarily to support one individual (Wadie Habboush)
- NuScale paid $495 million to ENTRA1 in Q3 2025, causing G&A expenses to spike from $17M to $519M
- Stock dropped 12.4% on November 10, 2025 when disclosed
Key dates:
- Lead plaintiff deadline: April 20, 2026
- Claims under Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Analyst Ratings (Recent Changes)
| Analyst | Action | New Rating | New PT | Old PT | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | PT cut | — | $13.00 | $20.00 | ~Mar 20 |
| Royal Bank of Canada | PT cut | Sector Perform | $14.00 | $21.00 | Mar 2 |
| Canaccord Genuity | PT cut | Buy | $25.00 | $60.00 | Feb 27 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | PT cut | Overweight | $20.00 | $55.00 | Feb 24 |
| Northland Securities | Upgrade | Outperform | $21.00 | — | Feb 27 |
Consensus: ~6 Buy, ~6 Hold, ~1 Sell. Median PT ~$21.00 (range $8–$60).
FY2025 Financials
- Revenue: $31.5M (down from $37M in FY2024; -14.9%)
- Liquidity: $1.3B in cash and investments at year-end 2025
Tranche Status Summary
| Tranche | Allocation | Trigger | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $500 | Near 52-week low ($11-12) | IN ZONE | Price $11.43, low today $11.15, 52wk low $11.08 |
| 2 | $500 | Fluor finishes selling ~40M shares | NOT MET | ~39.9M shares remain; structured sales targeting Q2 2026 completion |
| 3 | $500 | First firm contract (TVA or binding commitment) | NOT MET | TVA agreement still nonbinding; no other firm orders |
| 4 | $500 | Break below $11.08 OR second contract | APPROACHING | $11.08 is $0.35 below current price; today's low was $11.15 |
Risk Factors Since Last Check (2026-03-06)
- Securities fraud class action — adds litigation risk and uncertainty
- Executive insider selling — CTO and COO both sold in early March
- Fluor selling at much lower prices — structured sales creating ongoing supply pressure at $11-13 vs $19 block sale
- Revenue declined — FY2025 $31.5M vs FY2024 $37M (-14.9%)
- Analyst price target compression — median PT down from ~$35+ to ~$21
- ENTRA1 payment — $495M to a questionable entity raises governance concerns
Positive Factors
- $1.3B cash position — provides runway; cash value ~$4/share as floor
- Framatome fuel supply contract — shows supply chain is being built
- Northland upgrade — at least one analyst sees value at these levels
- NRC-certified design — only SMR with NRC design certification
- TVA pipeline — nonbinding but significant if it converts
Sources
- Fluor Receives $1.35B for 71M NuScale Shares (Fluor Newsroom)
- Fluor Receives $1.35B for 71M NuScale Shares (BusinessWire)
- Fluor trims NuScale stake — Schedule 13D/A (StockTitan)
- Fluor Sells 15M NuScale Shares — Schedule 13D/A (StockTitan)
- Fluor entity sells 463,747 NuScale shares — Form 4 (StockTitan)
- Fluor Dumps 71M SMR Shares (Motley Fool)
- Fluor and NuScale Announce Stake Monetization Agreement (NuScale)
- NuScale Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript (Investing.com)
- NuScale Stock Slumps Nearly 20% to Start 2026 (Motley Fool)
- Securities Fraud Class Action Filed (PR Newswire)
- NuScale Analyst Downgrade (American Market News)
- TVA-ENTRA1 Agreement (Power Magazine)
- TVA and ENTRA1 6 GW Deployment (ANS)
- Framatome and NuScale Fuel Supply Contract (NuScale)